Playing Without Looking at the World Series

In my first tournament yesterday I finished a semi-respectable but totally unprofitable 120th out of 768, an hour or so away from the $8000 prize for coming in 72nd or better and light-years away from the $636,000 first prize. Despite being totally sleep-deprived, I feel very pleased with my play and my stamina. I was still alert at midnight after ten hours of play.

By far my favorite hand of the day was one I played without looking at my cards! To succeed at poker you have to be constantly alert for special situations. In this case, we were playing $50 and $100 blinds, and the $100 blind was not at the table. Everyone folded to the dealer, internet Turk Scott Freeman, who glanced at his cards and raised to $250. I had $1500 in chips, pretended to look at my cards, and went all-in without knowing what I had! At that point Scott looked at his hand, then showed K-7 and said "I raised without looking" and folded. Of course I couldn't resist saying "I didn't look either" and turned over what turned out to be a Q-2. The table went nuts, and the other two internet players told Scott he had gotten totally "pwned" -- internet slang for schooled and embarassed.

Playing without looking at your hand is obviously exceedingly rare. The interesting thing is that both Scott and I played our hands perfectly. Here's the analysis:

So far my play has appeared to be pretty conservative. I haven't been caught bluffing, nor have I been forced to turn over hands that appear overly frisky. So everyone thinks that I am playing solidly. With the big blind gone, instead of having to worry about two players, Scott only has to worry about me, and he has favorable position for the rest of the hand. So raising with any two cards is appropriate, he pretended to look just for show.

Now it's my turn. I'm not really a tight player, but since I know I have that reputation I'm pretty sure he's going to raise with any two cards. So the chances that he has a hand good enough to call a re-raise from a tight player are pretty small, small enough that's it's mathematically correct to risk my $1500 to win the $400 that's already in there with any two cards. That would have been the end of it, but when he admits he didn't look at his cards first I can't resist telling him I didn't look either. When I turn my hand over I'm hoping for 7-2, and I'd be horrified if I had a big hand. Q-2 is fine and he is totally pwned.

The one drawback of course, is that my cover as a tight, careful player is now totally blown. My re-raises, the best steal weapon, now clearly have less credibility and are more likely to be called. Partially offsetting this is the fact that my good hands are now more likely to get paid off and I have sewn some confusion.

If that all seems pretty straightforward after the explanation, consider this: my $1500 stack is about the only size where the play works at all. If, for example, I only have $1000, then my opponent is now risking $750 to get 1600 and will almost certainly call. If I have $2500, then I am risking $2500 to win $400 and the risk/reward ratio is probably not favorable enough to justify the play.